Allwin Skill
Skill v Chance
Well, it would appear that Pennymachines has finally laid down the gauntlet.
In the good old days, Pennymachines and Bent Copper would have fought this out like men: with drawn swords, pistols or maybe even have thrown allwins at each other. However, in this enlightened age, it's doubtful the European Union would let us get away with that sort of politically incorrect (though most honorable) behavior.
So, here's what I propose: Following the success of the Coventry auction last year, Mechanical Memories Magazine will be organising a similar event in the spring (date to be announced), and I offer these two adversaries the opportunity to fight this out in public.
On receipt of positive response from you both, I'll come up with rules of engagement. But please - don't let this thread run to eight pages!
Jerry
In the good old days, Pennymachines and Bent Copper would have fought this out like men: with drawn swords, pistols or maybe even have thrown allwins at each other. However, in this enlightened age, it's doubtful the European Union would let us get away with that sort of politically incorrect (though most honorable) behavior.
So, here's what I propose: Following the success of the Coventry auction last year, Mechanical Memories Magazine will be organising a similar event in the spring (date to be announced), and I offer these two adversaries the opportunity to fight this out in public.
On receipt of positive response from you both, I'll come up with rules of engagement. But please - don't let this thread run to eight pages!
Jerry
- john t peterson
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Re: Allwin Skill
A most bold and gracious offer, JC. May I be so precocious as to offer a suggestion? Have two allwins options: one game labeled "skill" and the other "chance."
Our two noble knights shall conduct the experiment for the allwin most close aligned to the philosophy to which they ascribe.
Given the breath of this thread, the winner shall be recognized as as "Sir Rants-a-lot."
Our two noble knights shall conduct the experiment for the allwin most close aligned to the philosophy to which they ascribe.
Given the breath of this thread, the winner shall be recognized as as "Sir Rants-a-lot."
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Re: Allwin Skill
Dammit . I was hoping nobody would think of thatBent Copper might secretely use some skill to try and win as well, and that would invalidate the results.
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Re: Allwin Skill
As Guest says, a normal player wouldn't deliberately play to lose, and that's the difficulty with any test we try to devise. If we let lots of people play five goes each, naturally they'll be playing to win whether they mean to or not (because that, as pointed out, is the normal way to play). If my score is lower than their aggregate score, it might just mean that even without "warming up" the average player is more skilful than I am.
By the same token, a tournament between Sir Lucky Bent Copper and Sir Pennymachines Skill might just prove that Sir Lucky is the true master of the game.
As I said before, my point is not that I'm a skilful player, but that any reasonably dextrous player (maybe 90% of all players) can and will use skill to improve their chances of winning on an allwin, and this is true whether or not they believe it's a game of skill or chance.
The only way around this I can think of is to get players aiming to win and then aiming to lose and see if there's any difference in the outcome. If so, it would suggest they can to some degree influence where the ball ends up - which is the question we are trying to answer.
Another seven pages to agree the terms of engagement?
By the same token, a tournament between Sir Lucky Bent Copper and Sir Pennymachines Skill might just prove that Sir Lucky is the true master of the game.
As I said before, my point is not that I'm a skilful player, but that any reasonably dextrous player (maybe 90% of all players) can and will use skill to improve their chances of winning on an allwin, and this is true whether or not they believe it's a game of skill or chance.
The only way around this I can think of is to get players aiming to win and then aiming to lose and see if there's any difference in the outcome. If so, it would suggest they can to some degree influence where the ball ends up - which is the question we are trying to answer.
Another seven pages to agree the terms of engagement?
Re: Allwin Skill
I'm not sure aiming to lose proves anything. I think the most accurate and reliable method of setting up a skill v. chance test would be to have, say, 100 players each having one go, against one player having a hundred goes. Clearly, it would be inpossible for any player to exercise any skill with just one go, as he would have no reference. But with 100 goes, one player would easily develop a feel for the machine, and thus prove whether or not it is possible for a player to influence the outcome.
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Re: Allwin Skill
Why not? If the players are given an equal number of attempts to win, it would be a clear test of whether or not they can influence the outcome. Anyway, give it a try yourself - you may decide, as I did, that losing requires just as much skill as winning.I'm not sure aiming to lose proves anything.
In your proposal any skill should certainly be reduced by lack of "warm up", but 100 people taking one "random" shot each sounds a bit dull. Couldn't we come up with something more interactive and involving?
I'm sure we can think of something, but in the meantime I promise not to post again in this thread. I don't want to be banned from my own website for being too boring.
Hello? Is anybody listening...
- margamatix
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Re: Allwin Skill
Bent Copper wrote: Because they could.
It's the same as the Bryans device, just a sales gimmick. I don't believe there was a need for it.
What he said.
For the rhythm method to work, it would be necessary for each reel to turn by the exact same distance each and every time. If it could be stated that reel 1 turned for (say) 11 full revolutions and then 7 symbols, each and every time, then you could predict where it would stop next. But the simple fact is that one armed bandits do not work like this. For the reel to travel one symbol further or less is enough to render the system useless, and this, in reality, is what happens..
As for a modern AWP, the percentage payout can be adjusted by the engineer, as different territories have differing minimum payout rules. How would this be possible, without changing the symbols on the reels if the spin of the reels was random?
Why do you so often see a situation where seven nudges are needed to obtain a jackpot but the machine gives you six?
When I was a minicab driver, I used to take plenty of passengers who were skilled at emptying fruit machines using various systems, to the point where they made enormous sums of money doing it.
Funnily enough, they all seemed to live in bedsits on the top floors of semi-derelict B& B houses, and ask me if they could pay me next thursday when their Giro arrived.
- margamatix
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Re: Allwin Skill
I've just done a brief experiment using a Sega Diamond & Star mechanical bandit dating from the mid 1960s.
On each occasion, I started with three "BAR" symbols on the payout line (there is only one BAR on each reel) and I pulled the handle in an identical way each time and then noted where the reels stopped.
First pull- Plum Plum Bell
Second pull- Orange Cherry Bell
Third Pull- Orange Orange Lemon
On each occasion, I started with three "BAR" symbols on the payout line (there is only one BAR on each reel) and I pulled the handle in an identical way each time and then noted where the reels stopped.
First pull- Plum Plum Bell
Second pull- Orange Cherry Bell
Third Pull- Orange Orange Lemon
- margamatix
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Re: Allwin Skill
But the situation is bit different in the UK. See wikipedia.org/wiki/Slot_machine3ReelRon wrote:
This is exactly what I am saying....in the UK, a fruit machine takes on an amount above its payout percentage before winning, so if a payout is 95%, a machine will make the player lose £10 before paying out £9.50. As such, it is sensible to watch for people playing these machines but not winning as the likelihood of a win increases.
On a mechanical bandit, each play is completely unaffected by any play which has gone before, and is completely random- wins happen solely by the laws of mathematical chance. On a mechanical bandit, the likelihood of a win never increases or decreases and there is no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" machine.
The fact that this is not the case with an AWP, and that an AWP can alter its likelihood of payng a win is enough to tell you that the reels are not stopping at random.
- john t peterson
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Re: Allwin Skill
My head is reeling now. I always knew I was not smart enough to gamble. The foregoing eight pages confirm it.
- margamatix
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Re: New topic please
Anonymous wrote:Can the administrator or moderator create a new topic for these bandit posts, as has already been suggest and move all these message to that topic. This is an interesting subject, but is nothing to do with Allwin Skill. It should have a topic to itself. (and then delete this message)
Site Admin: Yes, I wanted to split this, but the two topics are so entwined there's no way without making it (even more) incomprehensible.
Well, that seems to have killed the topic stone-dead.
Could we not make it a rule that people have to register before they can post?
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Re: New topic please
That's a bit of an extreme reaction. Any registered poster could have suggested the same thing. It's not the poster's fault that the topic was hijacked, he's only suggesting the glaringly obvious. I myself suggested that a new topic be created when I could see what was about to happen. Unfortunately, the administrators failed to deal with it then and the inevitable happened. Now, nobody knows whether this topic is about Allwins or Bandits.margamatix wrote:Well, that seems to have killed the topic stone-dead.
Could we not make it a rule that people have to register before they can post?
Why a new Bandit Skill topic can't be created and the Bandit posts moved to it, I don't know. If they can't be moved, then the administrators should create a new topic and post a red message here along the lines of "This topic for the discussion of Allwin Skill only. All Bandit Skill discussion to take place here [link]" and then we would know what's going on.
When the topics have been split, then we might be able to get back to meaningful discussion again on both subjects, but if truth were told, maybe we've said all there is to be said?
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Re: Allwin Skill
I went through all seven pages of this topic, and I noticed opinions that almost hit upon something I have always thought about on Allwins.
Take the seven hole, straight across the top, buckets.
Short of a ball coming off of the rail and heading straight down into a hole, the ball is always going to deflect off a pin, to the right or left (lose holes).
I'm not strong on math or geometry, but I know enough that the arc of the ball, coming onto a pin, will deflect with a similar arc to the right or left.
The only other way to keep it from doing that, short of dropping it straight down to a hole, is if the ball comes onto the pins at a decreased velocity, therefore still bouncing with an opposite arc, but much shorter and possibly bouncing into another win hole.
If a ball, with enough velocity, hits a pin, it will go right or left, and those metal troths at both sides will guide the ball into a lose hole.
This is simple physics, and it is what makes so many fun fair games appear easy, but almost cannot be beat. As a former "carnie" as they call us in the states, I've seen so many, what they call "scientific games" work off this same principle.
Object comes in at a certain angle, object hits a solid, unmovable object, object recoils in the opposite direction.
Very little skill in an Allwin, unless the mechanics, ball guides, shooter, pins etc. are worn and not working to optimum.
Take the seven hole, straight across the top, buckets.
Short of a ball coming off of the rail and heading straight down into a hole, the ball is always going to deflect off a pin, to the right or left (lose holes).
I'm not strong on math or geometry, but I know enough that the arc of the ball, coming onto a pin, will deflect with a similar arc to the right or left.
The only other way to keep it from doing that, short of dropping it straight down to a hole, is if the ball comes onto the pins at a decreased velocity, therefore still bouncing with an opposite arc, but much shorter and possibly bouncing into another win hole.
If a ball, with enough velocity, hits a pin, it will go right or left, and those metal troths at both sides will guide the ball into a lose hole.
This is simple physics, and it is what makes so many fun fair games appear easy, but almost cannot be beat. As a former "carnie" as they call us in the states, I've seen so many, what they call "scientific games" work off this same principle.
Object comes in at a certain angle, object hits a solid, unmovable object, object recoils in the opposite direction.
Very little skill in an Allwin, unless the mechanics, ball guides, shooter, pins etc. are worn and not working to optimum.
Re: Allwin Skill
Strangely I don't believe anybody addressed the major factor in the classic allwin layout (only two losing holes at either end) that have cast channel on either side of the two losing cups. Those end channels being cast brass, which will stop the steel balls dead with no bounce, as opposed to the spring steel pins. So I've found that by landing the ball as central as possible in the holes allows for the highest chance of not hitting those end channels, thus allowing a higher chance of winning. Of course this was something most punters never knew or figured out in the short term.
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Re: Allwin Skill
Well, I just got here about three weeks ago.
So ...
I still think it's a fact, the physics dictate that the ball, hitting a pin in the middle, will deflect in the opposite direction, with a little less velocity, but enough for the end cups to grab it.
Barely no skill, mostly laws of physics.
So ...
I still think it's a fact, the physics dictate that the ball, hitting a pin in the middle, will deflect in the opposite direction, with a little less velocity, but enough for the end cups to grab it.
Barely no skill, mostly laws of physics.
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Re: Allwin Skill
Suppose you had a precision firing mechanism (instead of a sweaty thumb) with which you could reliably shoot the ball so it hit within millimetres of the centre of the Elevenses gallery, or within millimetres of the last cup on the end of the gallery. Would it make no difference to average returns which target you chose?
- coppinpr
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Re: Allwin Skill
I'm not getting into the 14 year discussion, just being a little "picky" about the quote above.
The classic allwin layout has no losing holes on the gallery only the loose drain hole..that's why it was called an "allwin"
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